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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still